UK Economic & Real Estate Briefing – February 2024 - BNP Paribas Real Estate

Research

02.02.2024

UK Economic & Real Estate Briefing – February 2024

This year will be pivotal for UK real estate. The backdrop remains challenging, but interest rate cuts are on the horizon, business confidence is improving, and lower inflation will support real income growth.

While recent indicators are encouraging, we expect growth to remain flat at the start of 2024, before gradually improving in the second half of the year.
While holding Bank Rate at 5.25% at the latest meeting, the Bank of England’s messaging suggests to us that cuts are on the horizon. We continue to expect 100 bps of cuts this year.
UK CRE investment volume fell over 40% y/y in 2023, but with interest rates now normalised, the outlook appears to be favourable for the first time in over two years.
The 5y swap rate is now holding below 4%, with the trend pointing downwards. This is an important line in the sand for those waiting for debt to become accretive to returns.

To read more, download the full report.

Looking for a PDF of this content?

close

Our research reports provide a unique insight into the real estate industry for investors, developers and property managers. Enter your email below and we’ll send a download link to your inbox.

By ticking this box, you consent to receive commercial communications or offers for goods and services from BNP Paribas Real Estate.

By providing this information to BNP Paribas Real Estate, you agree that BNP Paribas Real Estate may handle the information as set out in their Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Charlie Tattersall

Senior Associate Director

Samuel Duah

Head of Real Estate Economics, Director

Related articles

Research UK Economic & Real Estate Briefing - April 2025 28.03.2025 | 1 min read

Research UK Economic and Real Estate Briefing – March 2025 03.03.2025 | 1 min read

Research Capitalise on the Future | Economic & Real Estate Outlook – January 2025 23.01.2025 | 1 min read

We have a host of experts available for you to message with any questions you might have.

I would like to speak to someone about:

Contact the team

Full Name

Email

Phone number

Company name

Message

By providing this information to BNP Paribas Real Estate, you agree that BNP Paribas Real Estate may handle the information as set out in their Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Further information

Whenever you visit our website and/or use its features such as web forms, BNP Paribas Real Estate processes information about you such as personal identifying data including contact details for the purpose of processing the requests that are sent to us via the website, and, in some cases, for marketing purposes including by using cookies. Such information constitutes “personal data”.

For more information about how BNP Paribas Real Estate is processing your personal data in this context and an explanation of your rights (including a right of access, rectification and objection to direct marketing as well as, in certain circumstances, a right of erasure, restriction of processing, data portability and a right to object to other forms of processing) and BNP Paribas Real Estate’s obligations in that respect, please consult our data protection page and our cookie policy

Looking for something different?

We have a host of experts available for you to message with any questions you might have.

I would like to speak to someone about:

Contact the team

Full Name

Email

Phone number

Company name

Message

By providing this information to BNP Paribas Real Estate, you agree that BNP Paribas Real Estate may handle the information as set out in their Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Further information

Whenever you visit our website and/or use its features such as web forms, BNP Paribas Real Estate processes information about you such as personal identifying data including contact details for the purpose of processing the requests that are sent to us via the website, and, in some cases, for marketing purposes including by using cookies. Such information constitutes “personal data”.

For more information about how BNP Paribas Real Estate is processing your personal data in this context and an explanation of your rights (including a right of access, rectification and objection to direct marketing as well as, in certain circumstances, a right of erasure, restriction of processing, data portability and a right to object to other forms of processing) and BNP Paribas Real Estate’s obligations in that respect, please consult our data protection page and our cookie policy

Looking for something different?

We have a host of experts available for you to message with any questions you might have.

I would like to speak to someone about:

Contact the team

Looking for something different?

We have a host of experts available for you to message with any questions you might have.

I would like to speak to someone about:

Contact the team

Full Name

Email

Phone number

Company name

Message

By providing this information to BNP Paribas Real Estate, you agree that BNP Paribas Real Estate may handle the information as set out in their Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Further information

Whenever you visit our website and/or use its features such as web forms, BNP Paribas Real Estate processes information about you such as personal identifying data including contact details for the purpose of processing the requests that are sent to us via the website, and, in some cases, for marketing purposes including by using cookies. Such information constitutes “personal data”.

For more information about how BNP Paribas Real Estate is processing your personal data in this context and an explanation of your rights (including a right of access, rectification and objection to direct marketing as well as, in certain circumstances, a right of erasure, restriction of processing, data portability and a right to object to other forms of processing) and BNP Paribas Real Estate’s obligations in that respect, please consult our data protection page and our cookie policy

Looking for something different?

We have a host of experts available for you to message with any questions you might have.

I would like to speak to someone about:

Contact the office

Full Name

Email

Phone number

Company name

Message

By providing this information to BNP Paribas Real Estate, you agree that BNP Paribas Real Estate may handle the information as set out in their Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Further information

Whenever you visit our website and/or use its features such as web forms, BNP Paribas Real Estate processes information about you such as personal identifying data including contact details for the purpose of processing the requests that are sent to us via the website, and, in some cases, for marketing purposes including by using cookies. Such information constitutes “personal data”.

For more information about how BNP Paribas Real Estate is processing your personal data in this context and an explanation of your rights (including a right of access, rectification and objection to direct marketing as well as, in certain circumstances, a right of erasure, restriction of processing, data portability and a right to object to other forms of processing) and BNP Paribas Real Estate’s obligations in that respect, please consult our data protection page and our cookie policy