UK Economic and Real Estate Briefing – July 2021
The UK economic is set to outperform other advanced economies this year.
However, inflation continues to surprise to the upside, which is impacting construction costs. Meanwhile, real estate investor sentiment also continues to improve, with offices, retail and logistics all seeing upticks over H1.
- The labour market is now clearly turning a corner. The employment rate increased to 74.8%, the number of job vacancies are back above pre-pandemic levels and regular wage growth was 6.6% in Q2, although this has been inflated by temporary factors.
- UK inflation continues to surprise on the upside, with the y/y rate increasing from 2.1% to 2.5% in June. Construction costs rose 10.2% y/y in May.
- UK real estate investment volume reached £24.0bn at the half-year point of 2021. This was a 12% increase on H1 2019, signifying an encouraging return to pre-pandemic levels.
- Central London investment has been relatively subdued, but volume in the £200m+ size range remains strong. The global flight to an already-short supply of Grade A assets is pushing down prime yields.